Duchene To The Sens: What Does It Mean?
Matt Duchene’s name was in trade rumours for nearly 2 years, and for the majority of that time his name was connected to Ottawa. After multiple failed attempts, Pierre Dorion’s persistence paid off, and on Sunday evening, the Senators finally got Matt Duchene. With the trade finally made, it comes time to break it down and analyze what all of this means.
The official deal:
Sens Receive: Matt Duchene from COL
Predators Receive: Kyle Turris from OTT, sign him to a 6-year $36M deal
Avs Receive: Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, 2018 1st round pick & 2019 3rd round pick from OTT, and receive Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and 2018 2nd round pick
In Duchene, the Sens gain an Olympic gold medallist who has hit 70 points in a season and is only 26 years old. Furthermore, he has a year remaining on his contract after this season, which buys the Senators time to sort out their salary cap situation. Duchene also brings more speed, and will arguably produce even more with the talent provided in Ottawa, like Mike Hoffman. Guy Boucher has talked a lot about “playing fast” and how Ottawa is best when doing so. Playing fast in Boucher’s mind is breaking out quickly, transitioning quickly and doing everything with speed. Duchene exemplifies this with his quick feet and stick. Here, Duchene goes the length of the ice in 7 seconds or less. He starts off with a quick breakout, transitions into an offensive opportunity, and finishes with a goal. This explosive speed is exactly what the Senators needed to add to their Top 6.
To acquire Duchene, the Senators had to part with a Top 6 forward, losing Kyle Turris. Contract talks between Turris and the Senators had broken down recently, though. The Sens were put in a position where they had to sign Turris in a short timeframe, or he would walk away during free agency. Yes, they gave up Turris, but his replacement is arguably the better player. As well, Turris immediately signed a 6-year $36M deal in Nashville, which means he will make $6M per year until he is 35. With this, the Sens likely dodged a bullet there. While $6M seems reasonable for Nashville, it would not have been on the table for Ottawa. If Turris accepted that contract with Ottawa, he would make approximately $2.8M after taxes; in Nashville, $3.6M. That is a huge, underlying factor, which likely made Nashville much more attractive at $6M a year. Dealing Andrew Hammond gives some cap relief, as his time was clearly up with Condon firmly secured as the back-up. Shane Bowers may have been a first-round pick, but the Senators prospect pool is incredibly deep at the moment, and they did not have to give up Logan Brown, Colin White or Thomas Chabot. The picks are fine to go, because the Sens are pushing right now and do not need to stock up on young talent. They want to win; this trade solidifies that notion.
With the Senators indicating that they want to win, let us look at what their current lineup, when healthy, looks like:
Bobby Ryan – Derrick Brassard – Mark Stone
Mike Hoffman – Matt Duchene – Ryan Dzingel
Tom Pyatt – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Chris DiDomenico
Zack Smith – Nate Thompson – Alexandre Burrows
Additional Talent: Colin White & Filip Chlapik
Johnny Oduya – Erik Karlsson
Dion Phaneuf – Cody Ceci
Freddy Claesson – Chris Wideman
Additional Talent: Thomas Chabot, Ben Harpur and Christian Jaros
If Thomas Chabot can make his way onto the Senators roster and replace Johnny Oduya, the Senators’ Top-6 defensemen would be battle-tested and ready to go. As for the forwards, moving Zack Smith could make the team better now and secure your future. Colin White will be coming off of IR soon, and is good enough to play in the NHL right now. His development could take a huge step forward this year. Smith has been somewhat underwhelming, and has a hefty cap hit of $3.25M, with 3 years left after the 17-18 season. If the Senators were to move him, they would not only free up a spot in the lineup for White, but would free-up cap space for July 1st, 2018. This is when Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Erik Karlsson all become available to sign extensions.
The Senators’ salaries currently total $71.291M, with the cap at $75M. If Smith is moved, and White takes his spot $2.325M of cap space is freed up. Assuming Clarke MacArthur is eventually either placed on long-termed injured reserve or has his contract traded, this would free up an additional $4.65M, leaving the Senators with a $64.316M cap hit. If Karlsson is signed for $10.5M, Stone for $6.5M, and Duchene for $6.5M, this would put the Senators at a cap hit of $64.044M going into the 2019-20 season, where the cap would likely be over $75M. Even if Karlsson, Stone and Duchene, each wanted an extra million, there arguably could be space for that. Going into 19-20 they would have the following twelve players signed:
FWDs: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone, JG Pageau, Matt Duchene, Mike Hoffman, Logan Brown
D: Dion Phaneuf, Mark Borowiecki, Erik Karlsson, Thomas Chabot
G: Craig Anderson, Mike Condon
10 current prospects who could be ready by 2019-20: Christian Jaros (D) (Age: 21), Filip Chlapik (F) (Age: 20), Drake Batherson (F) (Age: 19), Alex Formenton (F) (Age: 18), Max Lajoie (D) (Age: 20), Ben Harpur (D) (Age: 22), Christian Wolanin (D) (Age: 22), Marcus Hogberg (G) (Age: 22), Francis Perron (F) (Age: 21), Nick Paul (F) (Age: 22).
And these moves would leave money for their young talent exiting their entry-level contracts (Colin White, Freddy Claesson and Cody Ceci). Furthermore, some of the young talent like Christian Jaros, Filip Chlapik, and Drake Batherson could very well be on the Sens roster by then, and could still be one Entry-Level Contracts, keeping costs down. If that is the case, they would have no problem being competitive and under the cap. The numbers don’t lie, and the math spells that these moves can secure the Senators’ future and keep them at an extremely competitive level.
Matt Duchene’s move to the Senators is a calculated risk, but a worthwhile one, especially considering his apparent want to play in Ottawa. This move is a step forward for the Senators, but it should not be the only one. They should consider empowering their young talent by moving older parts. Guy Boucher talked about “playing fast”, and these young players are incredibly quick and will only learn how to play Boucher’s style with more time on the ice. The Ottawa Senators are extremely close to replicating their Eastern-Conference Final run, and putting together a roster that can compete for years to come. It is a good time to be an Ottawa Senators fan.